Daily Mail
Senior Manager, Subscriber Intelligence & Forecasting
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Location: Daily Mail, HSK, London
Contract Type: Full-time/Permanent
About the Role
The Senior Manager, Subscriber Intelligence & Forecasting owns the numbers that tell the business what is happening to its subscriber base and why. This role holds the single accountable view of the 12-week rolling forecast, churn attribution, and cohort lifetime value, output that reaches the Director of Customer Success, the Director of Acquisition, and the Group MD directly.
This is one of three peer roles in the Customer Intelligence team, all reporting directly to the Director of Customer Success. There is no management layer between this role and the Director, and no reporting relationship with the other two roles in the team. Alignment with those peers is by agreement, not instruction; where the analytical view and the lifecycle strategy view genuinely conflict, that goes to the Director to resolve, not to a manager within the team.
Main Responsibilities
Forecasting
- Produce the 12-week rolling subscriber forecast and present it at the Director's fortnightly trading meeting.
- Provide the data inputs and analytical view that underpin the Director's long-term subscriber base model.
- Own forecast accuracy, iterating the model as actual subscriber base performance diverges from prediction.
Churn Attribution
- Own the churn number, with a mandate to understand and surface the upstream inputs, whether acquisition, product, or lifecycle intervention, that drive it.
- Provide the Acquisition team with a clear analytical view of how offer types, channels, and subscriber profiles translate into long-term retention performance.
- Identify subscriber segments at elevated churn risk ahead of cancellation, and pass that view to the Senior Manager, Lifecycle & Segmentation Strategy to convert into CRM intervention.
Cohort and Lifetime Value Analysis
- Maintain the cohort LTV model, covering acquisition channel, offer type, and lifecycle stage.
- Model net versus gross subscriber growth, isolating the underlying retention trend from acquisition volume.
- Track take-through rate, the conversion of subscribers from promotional to full price, as the primary leading indicator of structural churn risk, and flag material shifts before they surface in aggregate churn numbers.
Working Relationships
- Work with the Manager, Insights & Performance, who supplies the underlying data feeding the forecast and cohort models.
- Work with the Senior Manager, Lifecycle & Segmentation Strategy to ensure churn risk analysis translates into lifecycle intervention.
- Represent the Customer Intelligence team's analytical view directly to the Director of Acquisition where offer and channel decisions affect retention outcomes.
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OKRS: FIRST 90 DAYS
- Deliver the first 12-week rolling forecast within 60 days.
- Present the first churn attribution analysis to the Director within 90 days, with an evidence-based view of which upstream decisions are creating current churn risk.
- Build the initial cohort LTV model in collaboration with the Manager, Insights & Performance within 60 days.
- Agree the forecast data framework and cadence with the Manager, Insights & Performance within 45 days.
OKRS: LONGER TERM (ANNUAL AND BEYOND)
Annual (FY27)
- Monthly churn rate reduces against the FY26 baseline, with attribution showing the specific upstream and lifecycle changes that drove the improvement.
- The Acquisition team can demonstrate, with data from this role, that channel mix and offer design decisions are informed by subscriber lifetime value and retention behaviour.
- Forecast accuracy sits within an agreed tolerance, measured against actual base performance over rolling 12-week periods.
- The 12-week forecast is a live trading tool relied upon by the Director of Customer Success and the Director of Acquisition at every trading meeting, not a static monthly report.
Multi-year (toward FY28)
- Subscriber LTV by cohort is a standing measure across the Subscriptions function, used in acquisition planning, product prioritisation, and editorial commissioning decisions.
- The take-through rate improves materially, reflecting better offer design upstream and more effective lifecycle intervention downstream.
- Churn attribution is granular and reliable enough to identify at-risk segments before they appear in aggregate churn data.
Person Specification
- Statistical Forecasting: Minimum of 6–8 years of advanced experience building, owning, and iterating 12-week rolling forecasts and long-term subscriber base models.
- LTV Architecture: Proven track record of developing and maintaining complex cohort lifetime value (LTV) models sliced by acquisition channel, offer type, and lifecycle stage.
- Accuracy Accountability: Demonstrated experience owning forecast accuracy and continuously fine-tuning statistical models when actual performance diverges from predictions.
- Churn Attribution: Deep experience identifying the precise upstream drivers of churn across product changes, acquisition tactics, and lifecycle interventions.
- Growth Dissection: Expertise in modelling net versus gross growth to successfully isolate underlying retention trends from raw acquisition volume.
- Promotional Mechanics: Experience tracking take-through rates (converting promotional/discounted subscribers to full price) as a leading risk indicator.
- Executive Presence: Strong background presenting data models directly to senior leadership at regular intervals (e.g., Director of Customer Success, Director of Acquisition, Group MD).
- Strategic Peer Alignment: Proven ability to collaborate horizontally with senior peers, resolve conflicting data/strategic viewpoints constructively, and operate without a middle management layer.
- Cross-Functional Feeding: Experience transforming complex risk views into actionable segment files for CRM and marketing intervention teams.
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Package Description
Our benefits package increases the longer you’ve been with us. Here’s what to expect:
- 25 days’ holiday (increasing by 1 per year up to a total of 30)
- Upon joining you will be automatically enrolled onto the Pension Plan at the minimum level of 5% employee contribution, 3% Company contribution.
- Life cover under the Pension Plan of up to 3x your basic salary.
- DMGT Discounts (for discounts on online shopping, vouchers, and reloadable cards)
- Subsidised canteen
- Onsite gym (Northcliffe House only)
- Onsite nurse and GP clinics (Northcliffe House only)
- Our Employee Assistance Programme
- Discounted dining cards
Plus many other benefits….
Our Commitment
We are committed to increasing diversity and maintaining an inclusive workplace culture. We welcome applications from all qualified candidates regardless of their ethnicity, race, gender, religious beliefs, sexual orientation, age, marital status, or disability.
We are Disability Confident Committed. Please let us know if you require any recruitment documentation in other formats or if you require reasonable adjustments to be made during the recruitment process. Please be assured that any such information will be held separately to your recruitment application and will not be considered as part of the selection process.
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